Actuarial Concept: Why we use Then basis triangles for Incurred Chain Ladder (ICL) and Now basis for Projected Case Estimates (PCE) || Cut off point PPCF vs PCE for Direct / Represented claims

8/10/2013

Why do we use Then basis triangles for Incurred Chain Ladder (ICL) and Now basis for Projected Case Estimates (PCE)??

Ans (courtesy of TL):

Because for ICL, the chain ladder requires the full history of the claim to be able to project the trend. So the Then basis has all the development (or transitions) included in the triangle for that particular segment. (e.g. Reported as Large and how each of the large claims have developed).

As for the PCE, it is all about the most recent view of case estimates and the proportion that we  are going to pay out, so the transitions don't matter as much.

So the now basis triangles – which is the most up to date view of the segment, gives us exactly what we need (i.e. most up to date view of the case estimates for that segment). And that's why we use now triangles for PCE.

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8/10/2013

In our small then models, we use PCE for old periods and PPCF for new periods. The question is what is the cut off point/ when do we switch over from one model to the other? Xuan noticed that we had different cut off points for Direct claims vs Legally Represented claims.

ANS (courtesy of TL):

Legally represented claims usually take longer to resolve, sometimes because the claim is more complicated, and also cuz lawyers and etc make the process harder/longer. So we typically expect represented claims to finalise/settle slower. Whereas direct claims usually resolve quicker and settle for less $$, so if we go with the mindset that PCE is used for "old claims" with more development and PPCF for "newer claims" with lesser development, we would expect the number of accqtrs for PCE would be longer for the DIRECT than that for the REPRESENTED. (i.e. less "recent qtrs." Attributed to the PPCF for directs, and more for represented), since for the directs, the new claims get "older" (i.e. resolve) faster.

TL's tactic was to look in the Accyr PPCF model and look at 2010_2011 Fyr and see how much of that has already settled,  along with the payment pattern by the time it comes to about 19 qtrs (that's how long the PPCF is used for atm) – 82% already is finalised according to payment pattern, and about 97% of claims are already finalised in the accyr model from 2010_2011. (currently we are in 2013_14) So TL recommended we use no more than 3 yrs worth for PPCF, and then PCE from that point and back in time.

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不要多人作師傅、乃要多人謙卑學習真道。 傳自己信的。 傳真的道。

哈嘍，

本來是PO在自己網頁上的，只是覺得這裡面的話有可能能夠激勵、勉勵和肯定弟兄姐妹們，所以轉貼在這————

————————————————————————————————————

跟隨基督的朋友們，我們傳福音的時候，總要小心。用詞應當正確、精準，傳自己懂的，不要傳自己不懂的；傳自己深信的，不要傳自己不信的；傳真實的，不要隨意取出聖經的幾節經文然後編出自己的一套故事；自己不清楚的就承認不清楚；聖經沒講的就不要自己亂講，也不要說聖經或神有說。

不要害人因為你講的錯，他們對主的認識就跟著你錯一生。

所以不要當瞎眼的領其他瞎眼的走路，總要細心查明上帝的旨意然後盡心地用上帝的話勸導、教誨、幫助、責備、鼓勵 弟兄姐妹們。

"不要多人作師傅，因為曉得我們要受更重的判斷。" （雅各3：1）

少一點人作師傅、多一點人謙卑學道。

朋友們，我們當清楚明白：我們必須為每一句說出來的話向永生的主負責，所以不要在不懂的時候自以為懂—— 反要謙卑存溫柔的心聆聽真道—— 因為時候將到： 栽種在你心裡的道必定茁壯、長成堅固的，使你自然的能夠把上帝活的道 正確的 分享於身旁的人，完成大使命了。

當自己真的懂得好一些，但是還是不太懂另一些的時候，我們當肯定並勇敢地傳講懂的那部分、不懂的那部分先繼續謙卑的學習，先不傳 直到自己清楚了； 或當逼不得已 在事奉中沒有別的人可以問，而必須教的時候 —— 就算說了也要讓人知道其實你不大清楚：也勸人，要是發現你講的不對，就要忘掉你教的，推翻掉你的話，而返回聖經 (forget me, go back to the Bible)、歸順真理的神並祂正確的啟示。

更要明白—— 一切誠實真確美善的都是從眾光之父而來的

一切謊言、假的都是從那抵擋基督的來的。

所以，在我們的言語、也在我們傳道和講明神的道給我們周圍的人的時候，我們更當小心—— 照著上帝純全的啟示去說，不要在口上給魔鬼留地步而趁你過意隨便講論神的道而用你的口所出的話去迷惑眾人。

同樣一句話，可以叫一個人親近真理的神，也可以使一個人漸加離神更遠。我們要當助人親近神的那等人—— 就要小心自己的言語。要人信服你的話，就肯定自己：只講真的。因為唯有真的才永遠不可能被推翻。免得從你的話中顯出你的愚昧來。

Jesus Christ vs Christ Jesus -- whom do we preach? 耶稣基督， 跟 基督耶稣 我��哪一位？

我们常常传耶稣基督。
但是我们何曾传过基督耶稣？

耶稣—基督， 跟
基督—耶稣，
这其中的差别何等的大呢！

使徒保罗就清明这一点，所以他传的道是带着真能力的。读提摩太后书时，留意他的用词，看看他在什么情况下用 耶稣基督，又在什么情形下用基督耶稣。

基督— 是三位一�的上帝的第二�位格的主。
耶�— 是�基督道成肉身的�候，�baby�始命的名。

用���念去看看提摩太後�吧！

I was listening to the audio Bible during devotion on the train yesterday 3Apr13, and have been listening to the New Testament for a while. One thing which struck me was that in our churches, we always preach "Jesus Christ", "Jesus Christ", and the unbelievers have even used that as a swear word, in blasphemy. However, apostle Paul's use of Christ Jesus, which is the same two words but flipped over, in the second letter he wrote to his adopted son Timothy was interesting. Just when I thought he never used "Jesus Christ", suddenly, he used it. So he used "Christ Jesus" approx twice, then used "Jesus Christ" once, and then flipped back to using "Christ Jesus". 

That meant that apostle Paul was someone who used his language very carefully, as I sometimes do when writing very specific, exact emails at work to send out to other external business stakeholders.

Thinking about that idea, and looking at in which circumstance he used "Christ Jesus" and "Jesus Christ", I realised that he only used "Jesus Christ" when specifically talking about the incarnation and Jesus' death and resurrection/salvation. Other times, Paul referred to Christ -- as the second figure of the Trinity, in all His original glory, His eternity, and also His return to heaven and the glory He attained after His victory through resurrection.

So it is appropriate to think, when Paul refers to "Christ Jesus" as
"The Christ -------- *insert footnote*: btw, also the incarnated Jesus.", as if looking from the wide end of the telescope who is Christ to the narrow end of the telescope who is Jesus.

And to think of "Jesus Christ" as---
"the human Jesus who was borne of Mary ------- *insert footnote*: btw, don't forget He is actually the Christ", as if looking from the narrow end of the telescope to the wide end to see, that beyond his short life on earth, don't forget that the Eternal One is who is really Is.

O, what difference when we think of our saviour as Christ Jesus! What majesty, what glory, that encourages our hearts to follow Him ever more the faithfully!!!!!

Truly, it is like Paul says in 2Cor5: From now on, therefore, we regard no one according to the flesh. Even though we once regarded Christ according to the flesh, we regard him thus no longer.

The truth about Hell and why Christians spread Salvation - what are we being slavaged from? 基督徒為什麼傳福音？Basics about Christianity

若你是個基督徒，以下這篇是給你的。

如果你不是個基督徒，又被基督徒們煩得很，什麼救恩，什麼三位一體，什麼十字架的荒唐道理像說書一樣，那麼這篇是給你的—— 其實講道重點就是很懇切地不想要你去到那個叫地獄的那個沒有水、沒有好的地方。



在許多的講道和聖經分享中，有的時候我們被夾在很多的理論、問題、思想，卻忘了大體。在祂面前我們認罪，並宣告我們對祂的敬重和畏懼、並對祂的效忠------拿一生來證明我們的忠誠。因為祂是我們的王。親愛的兄弟姐妹們，請問，你的主有多大？親愛的兄弟姐妹們，請問，你的主有多大？我們這些知道地獄的存在和苦的人，讓我們真真的因為愛我們周圍的人，就告訴他們這些事實，使到我們周圍的人們不會忽然間走到生命的盡頭發現他們竟然被丟在地獄裡而又沒有人事先告訴他們而嚇到——那時已經太晚了！！！ 因為有很多人就像我們一樣，忙著建立事業、忙著讀書、忙著賺錢、忙著排隊、忙著戀愛、忙著滿足一切的慾望和飽食。。。而就忽略了救恩，並且並不知道說他們現在的路的終點竟然是一個懸崖！！！而要是不趁還在肉體裡活著有機會的時候去改變腳下的方向的話就有比現在能感受到、更激烈的折磨和痛苦等著他們，並且是沒有希望的--- 因為永遠也逃不出去！


讓我們不要忘記最基本的根本--明天就是受難節了，在這受難節和復活節期間，讓我們記得人類為什麼需要救恩，讓我們回想我們是怎樣信的，並且認罪，從心打底地後悔以前犯過的罪並改過，也記得我們為什麼要急切誠懇的去！使萬民作主的門徒。讓我們記念的耶穌不是一位對大家都很寬容、很溫柔、很沒力的好好先生——祂雖然曾一度騎著驢駒子進耶路撒冷，但是那個時期已經過了！！而是記得：下一次來的祂：是那位騎這將軍元帥的白馬，率領全軍擊殺一切抵擋祂的 --- 並叫他們全軍覆沒，以致屍首遍地，成為老鷹和飛鳥的宴席的 --- 的這位以色列的至-聖-者.


因為關心我們生命周圍的人，我們真的是有必要告訴他們---- 一位公義的（和三位一體的）上帝（三位一體的聖父）故意將祂自己（三位一體的聖子）釘在十字架上死了，因為要代替抗了你我的罪，而又復活了 ---- 就只有這位上帝 有夠力量能夠救你我脫離上帝對罪的憤怒和地獄的火。而只要相信這是真的，並且後悔自己平身所犯的一切罪，並立志因為這位上帝耶穌而離開罪惡，永遠不重蹈複測，又去找教會讓牧師用水給你洗禮，又求父上帝（聖父）藉著基督（聖子），用三位一體之聖靈（上帝的靈）給你洗禮並在你裡面居住、 並忠心守這道致死，你就能得永遠逃脫地獄，和永遠稱為乾淨的，並且成為上帝這大君王的領養兒女，與三位一體的祂一同享受政權。








In amongst all the preaching and testimonies and sharing of faith, sometimes it is very easy for us to get caught up in pesky little details, and arguments on different doctrines/theologies.In amongst all the preaching and testimonies and sharing of faith, sometimes it is very easy for us to get caught up in pesky little details, and arguments on different doctrines/theologies.But tomorrow is Good Friday. And this Good Friday, let us revise and not forget the basic facts;Let us remember what forms the core of our faith this Easter and why there is an urgency for us to spread the way out.Let's Praise God for good Friday, and magnify the Lord through Easter. Let us remember Christ not as "gentle Jesus, meek and mild", but the conqueror who will come very soon in a white army horse to slay all who are against Him and to judge every human that ever walked the earth. Let us restore fear and reverence unto Him for He is Life. Let us restore allegiance in a pledge to use our entire life to proof our faith in faithfulness. For He is our King.My dear brothers and sisters in Christ, may we each ask ourselves -- "How big is my Lord?"Let's Praise God for good Friday, and magnify the Lord through Easter. Let us remember Christ not as "gentle Jesus, meek and mild", but the conqueror who will come very soon in a white army horse to slay all who are against Him and to judge every human that ever walked the earth. Let us restore fear and reverence unto Him for He is Life. Let us restore allegiance in a pledge to use our entire life to proof our faith in faithfulness. For He is our King.My dear brothers and sisters in Christ, may we each ask ourselves -- "How big is my Lord?"My dear brothers and sisters in Christ, may we each ask ourselves -- "How big is my Lord?"My friends, don't Bible bash the unbelievers. Just let them know. Let them know that this is real.


And knowing Hell, let us, out of love and a genuine concern tell those around us about this reality, so that they do not unknowingly get caught in shock at their ending. For many of those around us and even we ourselves sometimes forget and just tread on with life, building a career, raising a family, party, enjoy life.... not knowing that the road ends in a sharp cliff and there is destruction awaiting us -- if we do not take active steps to change the course of our paths right now while we are still alive.


My friends, don't Bible bash the unbelievers. Just let them know. Let them know that this is real.

A new found anger and hatred - Hell hath no fury greater than this

Today, I caught my boyfriend in a photo standing closely and intimately with another ... girl. Not even a woman is she, for she, despite looking pretty, is not mature nor weathered by the pains of society. A little viper is she, who looks pretty on the outside but inside hath no love, no patience, no respect for those elder than her (as seen in previous occassions in her behaviour towards others) which could only mean she knows not her place. A little, useless, self-righteous thing that knows a lot of Bible knowledge but yet hath no life living in her heart.

When in me I found love, I also found a new anger and a new hatred. How zealous am I for purity!

I understand the saying now that "Hell hath no fury greater than this."

I will bring this case against him to my Father. I will pour out before Him all his inequities.

I will see my Father fulfill the case against him and bring unto him the rightful punishments.
I will see my Father restore integrity and purity in righteousness within him.

And may my Father do something for me, and pull the reins within his heart.

May he repent and start setting up walls of distance between himself and other women in order to preserve integrity and preserve himself for me and me only.

May my Father do something for me,

Lest I do something for myself.

Lest I do something for myself like reverting the position of control and being the head and stripping him off all authority that he may never ever stand again.

Afterall, he deserves it. But I still hope he keeps his birthright. And keeps his crown his own.

And as for the girl, how shall I deal with her?

Will I, Your princess, bother myself with such a human, my Lord? Just from the fury in my eyes will she vanquish.

I now understand what it means when Revelation says about Jesus Christ having eyes that are blazing like fire. For in the same manner are mine, though His is most intense.

Revelation 1

I turned around to see the voice that was speaking to me. And when I turned I saw seven golden lampstands, and among the lampstands was someone like a son of man,^[d]dressed in a robe reaching down to his feet and with a golden sash around his chest. The hair on his head was white like wool, as white as snow, and his eyes were like blazing fire. His feet were like bronze glowing in a furnace, and his voice was like the sound of rushing waters. In his right hand he held seven stars, and coming out of his mouth was a sharp, double-edged sword. His face was like the sun shining in all its brilliance.

When I saw him, I fell at his feet as though dead. Then he placed his right hand on meand said: "Do not be afraid. I am the First and the Last. I am the Living One; I was dead,and now look, I am alive for ever and ever! And I hold the keys of death and Hades.

"Write, therefore, what you have seen, what is now and what will take place later. The mystery of the seven stars that you saw in my right hand and of the seven golden lampstands is this: The seven stars are the angels^[e] of the seven churches, and the seven lampstands are the seven churches.

Revelation 2: To the Church in Thyatira

"To the angel of the church in Thyatira write:

These are the words of the Son of God, whose eyes are like blazing fire and whose feet are like burnished bronze. I know your deeds, your love and faith, your service and perseverance, and that you are now doing more than you did at first.

Nevertheless, I have this against you: You tolerate that woman Jezebel, who calls herself a prophet. By her teaching she misleads my servants into sexual immorality and the eating of food sacrificed to idols. I have given her time to repent of her immorality, but she is unwilling. So I will cast her on a bed of suffering, and I will make those who commit adultery with her suffer intensely, unless they repent of her ways. I will strike her children dead. Then all the churches will know that I am he who searches hearts and minds, and I will repay each of you according to your deeds.

Now I say to the rest of you in Thyatira, to you who do not hold to her teaching and have not learned Satan's so-called deep secrets, 'I will not impose any other burden on you, except to hold on to what you have until I come.'

To the one who is victorious and does my will to the end, I will give authority over the nations— that one 'will rule them with an iron scepter and will dash them to pieces like pottery'^[b]—just as I have received authority from my Father. I will also give that one the morning star. Whoever has ears, let them hear what the Spirit says to the churches.

詩歌分享：十架道路 、若你曾愛過耶穌你主 - 唐崇榮

These two songs song made such an impact in my life... 

這兩首詩歌。。。何等地改變了我的生命！！

記得當年2008？2009年是從聽唐崇榮的講道中他教大家唱的，
今天整理email inbox的時候懵然看到了歌詞。。。 還是那麼的扎心。。。

 

 

十架道路

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZedtHVqqsns 

十字架的道路要犧牲，   要將一切獻於神； 

將一切放在死的祭壇上面，   火纔在這�顯現。

（副）

這是十架道路！   你願否走這個？  你曾否背十架為你主？  

你這奉獻一切給神的人！    對神你是否全貞？

 

 當我們唱詩禱告時候，     何等願說“獻所有！”   

但前面有更沉重的十字架！       有更艱難的生涯！

 

你要變節？ 或忠心到死？      讓一切完全損失？     

直等到永活主的豐盛生命        天天充滿在你靈？

 

神的救法是由死得生       你與主合為一人    

在十架，你因信已與祂同釘，        從你身活出祂命。

 

我們的得失並不要緊，      神的旨意當留心；   

我們若將萬事都看如糞土，      主纔不會受攔阻

http://myblog.edzx.com/?22467/viewspace-16003

 

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RirPIOz_4Xo

 

若你曾愛過耶穌你主

若你曾愛過耶穌你主 ，為何不於今更愛祂？

雖你曾一度遠祂、離他，主愛卻不改變。。。

救主柔聲召人歸家，其中也有你名字；

若你曾愛過耶穌你主 ，何不於今更愛祂？

Above all, put on love which binds everything together -- get our priorities right

We're always on about evangelism and building up the church, getting in the crowds, but did you know that Jesus was in the business of not only planting and building churches, but He was also in the business of closing down churches? "I'd rather not have a church at all than have a church like this right here."

我們常常大力推行福音運動、極力推廣建立教會，把群眾拉攏到會堂裡，但是有誰注意到-- 基督耶穌不止投資在開發教會的行業上，祂也投資資源在關閉教會的行業上。“我寧可沒有這種教會在這個地方，也不要有一個這樣的教會在這裡。”

“To the angel for the church in Ephesus, write: 

These are the words of Him who holds the seven stars in His right hand and walks among the seven golden lampstands: I know your deeds. Your hard work and perseverance. I know that you cannot tolerate wicked men, that you have tested those who claim to be apostles but are not, and have found them false. You have persevered and have endured hardships for My Name, and have not grown weary.

Yet however I hold this against you: You have forsaken your first love. Remember the height! From which you have fallen!. Repent and do the things you did at first. If you do not repent, I will come to you and remove your lampstand from its place. But you have this in your favour--- You hate the practices of the Nicolaitans, which I also hate.

He who has an ear, let him really hear what the Spirit says -- to the churches. To him who overcomes, I will give the right to eat from the tree of life, which is in the paradise of God.”

~Reflection:~Today, are ourselves just like the Ephesus church too? Do we approach God with the same attitude that art hostile to our neighbours? Did we lose our first love? Do we realise that this Christ-sourced love is so serious that if we lose that love then it is not a minor issue, but one that would cause you -- the church, and the church building/organisation you are in to close down? to be, in economic terms, 'wound up' like a company which cannot meet its liabilities anymore?

“你要寫信給以弗所教會的天使，說：

那右手拿著七星，在七個金登台中間踏步巡邏的說：我知道！你的行為、你的勞碌、你的忍耐，我也知道你不能容忍惡人。你也曾試驗那自己稱自己是使徒卻不是使徒的，看出他們是假的來。你也能忍耐，曾為我的名勞苦，並不乏倦。

然而，有一件事我要責備你，就是你把起初的愛心離棄了。所以應當回想你是從哪裡墮落的，並要悔改，行起初所行的事。你若不悔改，我就臨到你那裡，把你的燈檯從原處挪去，然而，你還有一件可取的事，就是你恨惡尼哥拉一黨人的行為，這也是我所恨惡的。

聖靈向眾教會所說的話，凡有耳的，就應當好好聽：得勝的，我必將樂園中生命樹的果子賜給他吃。”

~回想：∼如今，我們自己是不是也抱著跟以弗所教會一樣的態度？就是說愛主卻缺乏對我們旁邊的鄰舍、人們的關愛呢？我們是不是也失去了由基督為根源的那個起初的愛的心？

卻又知不知道事情的嚴重性？聖靈告訴我們說基督寧可關掉這種又刻苦耐勞、又不容忍惡人、又精確明白神的話以致能探出哪一些是真使徒假使徒、又雖然刻苦卻堅守神並不乏倦的，卻沒有愛的教會和會友—————— 像一間公司因為周轉不靈、欠太多債務而面臨倒閉、需要基督來把教會的門關閉了一樣。你我有否曾經思念過：為什麼沒有愛會導致這種危機？

==============================================================

Colossians 3

English Standard Version (ESV)

Put On the New Self

3 If then you have been raised with Christ, seek the things that are above, where Christ is, seated at the right hand of God. Set your minds on things that are above, not on things that are on earth. For you have died, and your life is hidden with Christ in God. When Christ who is your^[a]life appears, then you also will appear with him in glory.

Put to death therefore what is earthly in you:^[b] sexual immorality, impurity,passion, evil desire, and covetousness,which is idolatry. On account of these the wrath of God is coming.^[c] In these you too once walked, when you were living in them. But now you must put them all away: anger, wrath, malice, slander, and obscene talk from your mouth. Do not lie to one another, seeing that you have put off the old self^[d] with its practices and have put on the new self, which is being renewed in knowledge after the image of its creator. Here there is not Greek and Jew, circumcised and uncircumcised, barbarian, Scythian, slave,^[e] free; but Christ is all, and in all.

Put on then, as God's chosen ones, holy and beloved, compassionate hearts,kindness, humility, meekness, and patience, bearing with one another and,if one has a complaint against another,forgiving each other; as the Lord has forgiven you, so you also must forgive. And above all these put on love, which binds everything together in perfect harmony. And let the peace of Christ rule in your hearts, to which indeed you were called in one body. And be thankful. Let the word of Christ dwell in you richly, teaching and admonishing one another in all wisdom, singing psalms and hymns and spiritual songs, with thankfulness in your hearts to God. And whatever you do, in word or deed, do everything in the name of the Lord Jesus,giving thanks to God the Father through him.

Rules for Christian Households

Wives, submit to your husbands, as is fitting in the Lord. Husbands, love your wives, and do not be harsh with them. Children, obey your parents in everything, for this pleases the Lord. Fathers, do not provoke your children, lest they become discouraged. Bondservants,^[f] obey in everything those who are your earthly masters,^[g] not by way of eye-service, as people-pleasers, but with sincerity of heart, fearing the Lord. Whatever you do, work heartily, as for the Lord and not for men, knowing that from the Lord you will receive the inheritance as your reward. You are serving the Lord Christ. For the wrongdoer will be paid back for the wrong he has done, and there is no partiality.

Footnotes:

1. Colossians 3:4 Some manuscripts our
2. Colossians 3:5 Greek therefore your members that are on the earth
3. Colossians 3:6 Some manuscripts addupon the sons of disobedience
4. Colossians 3:9 Greek man; also as supplied in verse 10
5. Colossians 3:11 Greek bondservant
6. Colossians 3:22 Or Slaves; also 4:1(for the contextual rendering of the Greek word doulos, see Preface)
7. Colossians 3:22 Or your masters according to the flesh

歌 羅 西 書 3

Chinese Union Version (Traditional) (CUV)

3 所 以 ， 你 們 若 真 與 基 督 一 同 復 活 ， 就 當 求 在 上 面 的 事 ； 那 裡 有 基 督 坐 在 神 的 右 邊 。你 們 要 思 念 上 面 的 事 ， 不 要 思 念 地 上 的 事 。

因 為 你 們 已 經 死 了 ， 你 們 的 生 命 與 基 督 一 同 藏 在 神 裡 面 。基 督 是 我 們 的 生 命 ， 他 顯 現 的 時 候 ， 你 們 也 要 與 他 一 同 顯 現 在 榮 耀 裡 。所 以 ， 要 治 死 你 們 在 地 上 的 肢 體 ， 就 如 淫 亂 、 污 穢 、 邪 情 、 惡 慾 ， 和 貪 婪 。 貪 婪 就 與 拜 偶 像 一 樣 。因 這 些 事 ， 神 的 忿 怒 必 臨 到 那 悖 逆 之 子 。

當 你 們 在 這 些 事 中 活 著 的 時 候 ， 也 曾 這 樣 行 過 。但 現 在 你 們 要 棄 絕 這 一 切 的 事 ， 以 及 惱 恨 、 忿 怒 、 惡 毒 （ 或 作 ： 陰 毒 ） 、 毀 謗 ， 並 口 中 污 穢 的 言 語 。不 要 彼 此 說 謊 ； 因 你 們 已 經 脫 去 舊 人 和 舊 人 的 行 為 ，穿 上 了 新 人 。 這 新 人 在 知 識 上 漸 漸 更 新 ， 正 如 造 他 主 的 形 像 。

在 此 並 不 分 希 利 尼 人 、 猶 太 人 ， 受 割 禮 的 、 未 受 割 禮 的 ， 化 外 人 ， 西 古 提 人 ， 為 奴 的 、 自 主 的 ， 惟 有 基 督 是 包 括 一 切 ， 又 住 在 各 人 之 內 。所 以 ， 你 們 既 是 神 的 選 民 ， 聖 潔 蒙 愛 的 人 ， 就 要 存 （ 原 文 作 穿 ； 下 同 ） 憐 憫 、 恩 慈 、 謙 虛 、 溫 柔 、 忍 耐 的 心 。倘 若 這 人 與 那 人 有 嫌 隙 ， 總 要 彼 此 包 容 ， 彼 此 饒 恕 ； 主 怎 樣 饒 恕 了 你 們 ， 你 們 也 要 怎 樣 饒 恕 人 。

在 這 一 切 之 外 ， 要 存 著 愛 心 ， 愛 心 就 是 聯 絡 全 德 的 。又 要 叫 基 督 的 平 安 在 你 們 心 裡 作 主 ； 你 們 也 為 此 蒙 召 ， 歸 為 一 體 ； 且 要 存 感 謝 的 心 。當 用 各 樣 的 智 慧 ， 把 基 督 的 道 理 豐 豐 富 富 的 存 在 心 裡 ， （ 或 作 ： 當 把 基 督 的 道 理 豐 豐 富 富 的 存 在 心 裡 ， 以 各 樣 的 智 慧 ） ， 用 詩 章 、 頌 詞 、 靈 歌 ， 彼 此 教 導 ， 互 相 勸 戒 ， 心 被 恩 感 ， 歌 頌 神 。無 論 做 甚 麼 ， 或 說 話 或 行 事 ， 都 要 奉 主 耶 穌 的 名 ， 藉 著 他 感 謝 父 神 。你 們 作 妻 子 的 ， 當 順 服 自 己 的 丈 夫 ， 這 在 主 裡 面 是 相 宜 的 。你 們 作 丈 夫 的 ， 要 愛 你 們 的 妻 子 ， 不 可 苦 待 他 們 。

你 們 作 兒 女 的 ， 要 凡 事 聽 從 父 母 ， 因 為 這 是 主 所 喜 悅 的 。你 們 作 父 親 的 ， 不 要 惹 兒 女 的 氣 ， 恐 怕 他 們 失 了 志 氣 。你 們 作 僕 人 的 ， 要 凡 事 聽 從 你 們 肉 身 的 主 人 ， 不 要 只 在 眼 前 事 奉 ， 像 是 討 人 喜 歡 的 ， 總 要 存 心 誠 實 敬 畏 主 。無 論 做 甚 麼 ， 都 要 從 心 裡 做 ， 像 是 給 主 做 的 ， 不 是 給 人 做 的 ，因 你 們 知 道 從 主 那 裡 必 得 著 基 業 為 賞 賜 ； 你 們 所 事 奉 的 乃 是 主 基 督 。

那 行 不 義 的 必 受 不 義 的 報 應 ； 主 並 不 偏 待 人 。

Which Passion?

If only people were as passionate about God as they are about sports.
If only people were as passionate about knowing the Holy One Himself! --- rather than being passionate about doing all these supposed "church things", feeling good about being all "religious" and yet shut God outside the the church building's doors and the doors of the homes/places we use for "Bible study"... My friend, your religiosity will not save you 朋友，你的宗教熱誠不能救你 ---- the pharisees tried that too, and they were more fervent than you 法利賽人也這麼樣試過，只是他們比你更熱誠、更義，卻仍然落空.

If you are passionate about sports/work/your partner/kids/love/dog/whatever else, then where is that same passion for your God?

People, to replace The Almighty One with a passion for other "things/gods".. 以別神/物 代替耶和華的，this is a snare subtly planned by Satan, and you're just walking straight into his trap, do you not realise that it leads to destruction? Don't you know that God's Spirit who is inside of you yearns for your attention, passion and commitment to the extent that He is zealously jealous of everything else that can threaten to take His place? 你們這些一腳踏兩船的人哪！難道你們不知道，與世界為友，就是與神為敵嗎？所以，如果有人想要和世界做朋友，他就成了神的仇敵！ 或者，你們以為經上所說的「神使聖靈住在我們裡面，他愛我們到嫉妒的地步」是空話嗎？(James4)

Therefore, whatever other passion you have, be sure to give God more. Whatever other commitment you have put in your heart, be sure that you are committed to Him above all others. Make sure that God has the upperhand, in your life.

敬畏耶和華是智慧的開端；認識至聖者便是聰明。
----- 對耶和華的敬重和畏懼是智慧的根基；而自己親自認識這位至聖者便是這個人的聰明。
For the fear of The Lord is the beginning of wisdom, and knowledge of the Holy One is understanding.
----- For the reverent fear of The Lord is the foundation for wisdom, and Knowing the Holy One personally is intelligence in understanding.

I feel so lost -- The Bifurcation - Fork in the road. 兩條路的岔口和選擇 -- 心煩的解答

當我們心煩意亂，覺得好像迷路的時候，怎麼做呢？
When we feel frustrated, lost, and at the verge of losing hope and thinking about just giving up, what do we do?

Have we ever realised.. that every good thing honestly really exactly comes from The Lord? 我們何曾真正想、明白、或體會過，說每一件的好 真真實實且實際地來自那擁有萬軍的耶和華？

That is, every single thing we ever thought was good and nice and like and appreciate in and on this earth, do we realise they ALL belong to heaven? 也就是說，每一件小小的 大大的什麼、每一點溫馨、每一點漂亮的夜景、每一片漂亮又悅人眼目的樹上的葉子、每一朵花、每一顆乾淨的空氣原子，在種類分佈中都是屬於天堂的那一類？

While on earth we get a bifurcation - a two way road co-existing on the same planet, we get a mixture of things that are good and things that are bad. In the future it is not like this. 這個世界是一個岔口—— 是交通路的十字路口：在這世界我們好和不好的兩者並參、兩樣皆有，使得我們兩個都能同時親身體會到，但是我們的未來卻不是這樣的。

In the future things will be separated into two distinct groups --- there will be such stark contrast as heaven is to hell, that one is independent of the other, and all good things get separated to heaven and are emphasised with more good in full, while all bad things get separated to hell and are emphasised with more un-good(i.e. bad) in full, as if through a sift. The same way that the farmer separates the wheat from the tares, and the rice grain from its shells -- and keeps one group, and throws the other group away. The good things will get even better; the bad aspects and the suffering burdens will get even worse. And between the two there is a deep gulf such that one cannot cross to the other from either way.所謂‘未來’，就是我們現在選擇走的路。。的目的地。在這就快到的未來中，一切都全部會被分別為兩大組、兩大捆—— 而兩大捆之間的對比根本天差地遠。。更對的形容應該是 ’天堂差地獄遠‘ 的天差獄遠。極致兩捆中間有個極度深的鴻溝，以致互不相連，這一方不能到那一方去，那一方也不能到這一方去。而好的，把它帶到一方，叫它更加好；不好的把它帶到另一方，使它跟更加不好的聚集在一處。

例如，一切的漂亮風景叫它更加大規模地好、一切美食更加地好味兒、一切分別為聖的門徒叫他更加聖潔完全美好、一切的喜樂在門徒心裡更加豐盛樂上加樂、一切的親情朋友間的聯繫 叫他們在聖徒相同中更加更加甘甜。。。而一切的不好—— 一切的苦毒憤恨，叫他們因為地獄的火難受就更加苦毒憤恨、 本來在世界上有的什麼稱兄道弟的道義會因為被折磨得甚痛苦而化為無有，就算母親也不再愛自己的孩子，反而彼此想爬出無底坑而就彼此踐踏，想爬在對方上面。一切的黑暗，更加叫它黑暗極致那種黑暗是感覺得到、嘗得到的。一切的惡人和罪惡，把他們配在比他們更惡的鬼魔-- 就是那些故意墮落的天使下面管制。而那些墮落的鬼魔因為憤恨自己被上帝貶位、處罰而更加恨死那些照著上帝形象造的墮落在地獄裡的人。在鬼魔他們心裡沒有所謂的憐憫、恩慈——這些憐憫恩慈的概念都是由上帝而來，是屬天的，所以他們必晝夜不停不歇地一面自己受痛苦，一面用盡各種主意折磨著選擇地獄的人、譏笑來消遣他們的痛苦。他們用聖經的話來譏笑那些曾經知道上帝的道卻離開祂去走滅亡世界的路的人，使那些人分分秒秒都不能忘記他們做了這樣的選擇，所以現在自食其果、那麼痛苦。

Knowing this, Pick carefully your way. 小心選擇你走哪裡。

我 思 想 我 所 行 的 道 ， 就 轉 步 歸 向 你 的 法 度 。我 急 忙 遵 守 你 的 命 令 ， 並 不 延 遲 。(詩篇119) 因為袮的話--就是那道的本體--- 袮的話是我的命 -- 我最深的渴慕 （渴了就羨慕想得的）、又是我最深的需要。沒有袮在的一刻，我就不知道我在哪裡。袮的道就是祂 -- 生命祂自己住在我裡面-- 生命就是基督。When I think about my ways, then I turn my steps to walk your statutes. I quickly hasten and will not delay to obey all your commands. (Psalm 119). For Your Word is life to me. My truest longing, my deepest need. Without You one moment, I don't know where I'd be. You Word is He -- is Life The Christ who lives in me.

Every good thing honestly comes from The Lord; Large external social benefits and Christ

People like personal benefit. All for me, all to me, all about me, me, me, and me. But God likes large external benefits. Large external social benefits to the surroundings around you. For He lives in you. And His presence radiates out through your body -- like light through a semi-transparent cloth.

Therefore, while our governments worry more about their election statistics and securing a position and spending money on campaigns and spending money on those things that give them a better reputation, when Christ is the government, He will build infrastructure. He will invest on the things that from a selfish point of view will reap no visible reward. In His reign, He will get the flood mitigation done, the water desalination done, the recycling program underway.... in all these things the external benefits are large, and much needed. There will be such peace that the lions will graze with the ox and eat grass; such peace that there will no longer be any need for a national defence force and swords will be remelted and re-casted into ploughshares. 

When CEO's only care for their short term bonuses, and will rip money off the reserves and squeeze blood out of stone and make many redundant using the 'cost saving' excuse, in Christ's reign He will be fair. 

And He is happy to share His reign with us -- the ones whom He loves. Therefore let us adopt His ways, ascribing greatness to His wisdom, for we are His.

Do we realise.. that every good thing honestly really exactly comes from The Lord? That is, every single thing we ever thought was good and nice and like and appreciate in and on this earth, do we realise they ALL belong to heaven? While on earth we get a bifurcation - a two way road co-existing on the same planet, we get a mixture of things that are good and things that are bad. In the future it is not like this. In the future things will be separated into two distinct groups --- there will be such stark contrast as heaven is to hell, that one is independent of the other, and all good things get separated to heaven and are emphasised with more good in full, while all bad things get separated to hell and are emphasised with more un-good

(i.e. bad) in full, as if through a sift. The same way that the farmer separates the wheat from the tares, and the rice grain from its shells -- and keeps one group, and throws the other group away. The good things will get even better; the bad aspects and the suffering burdens will get even worse. And between the two there is a deep gulf such that one cannot cross to the other from either way.

Knowing this, Pick carefully your way. 小心選擇你走哪裡。 

我 思 想 我 所 行 的 道 ， 就 轉 步 歸 向 你 的 法 度 。我 急 忙 遵 守 你 的 命 令 ， 並 不 延 遲 。(119) 因為袮的話--就是那道的本體--- 袮的話是我的命 -- 我最深的渴慕 （渴了就羨慕想得的）、又是我最深的需要。沒有袮在的一刻，我就不知道我在哪裡。袮的道就是祂 -- 生命祂自己住在我裡面-- 生命就是基督。

When I think about my ways, then I turn my steps to walk your statutes. I quickly hasten and will not delay to obey all your commands. (119). For Your Word is life to me. My truest longing, my deepest need. Without You one moment, I don't know where I'd be. You Word is He -- is Life The Christ who lives in me.

The risk of Hedging against risks -- a life application

CT7 Excerpt M05Q3
What are the limitations of a hedging strategy by using stock index futures to hedge against adverse share price movements?

Ans: The share price of the target company might not move in line with the market index.
As is often the case in the commercial world, the exact cash movements are seldom known in advance. The key is to hedge the best estimate of the known risk.

~~~~~~~~

Reading this, I could not help but agree. It is very true -- in every aspect of life (not just share prices!), we can only do the best we can to minimise the known risk, and trust that God will dictate our paths out of His commitment to us.

Got many aims in life, but do they really glorify His Name? Which of these paths will lead to the least risk and greatest guarantee of the investments we have put under His Name?


When potential energy remains as potential energy -- that is, instead of translating to kinetic energy -- when this happens, I jump ship and remove myself from that situation, Lord.

Salford Systems CART - the trade off between Purity and Accuracy -- and its application to The Kingdom

Something I learnt during Salford Systems CART training.

High purity à low accuracy

Low purity à high accuracy

As in, if we want to minimise the impurity function (I), which CART uses,

·         Under GINI splitting method is: which is also

·         Or Under Entropy Splitting method is:

If we want to minimise the impurity function as in we want to maximise the purity that all the records put into the classes actually belong to that class, e.g. we want the blue category as below screenshot to have as less reds as possible (hence pure), then we have to make the blue category more difficult to enter by reducing the prior probability for blue category to 0.1 and increase the probability/ease to class into red category to 0.9 (they have to add up to 1). However, what you get is that at the cut off line, you lose quite a bit of blues that are to the left of the cut off, so the accuracy of the splitting decreases.

However, if you want to capture all the blue records (hence increase splitting accuracy) then you want to shift the cut off line to the left, and you can do so by changing prior probability to (red-0.1 , blue 0.9). Hence increase the ease that any record can be classed into the blue category. But by doing so, at the same time you get more contamination of reds in the blue category. Hence the purity of the class decreases.

That is the trade-off between accuracy and purity. It is impossible to be both 100% accurate and 100% pure at the same time because they are inverse functions of each other.

And I heard God say, “Don’t you know that my church is also like that?”

High purity in Holiness à low accuracy – low number of people streamed into the Kingdom

Low purity in Holiness à high accuracy – high number of people streamed into the non-Kingdom that is hell.

And in order to establish a kingdom whose citizens can last forever, it is clear which path God chose in the trade-off between Purity and Accuracy…
But He did give a way out in His higher purpose that surpasses the records He streams into one class or another à He gave them (us) salvage-tion (salvation). So our analogy, let blue equate to the kingdom’s class/category. The amazingly amusing thing is that – with His blood He can wash us so pure, that He actually turns the red records into blue records – for those who do come to Him. For such people who come to Him, is the kingdom of heaven prepared for them. Confess your sins, and produce fruit in repentance, and He will wash you white as snow.

So that even with the same prior probability – i.e. the same high standards in the split, you WILL get more accuracy! And this is done, but Him saying through His dead and resurrection through the cross – “I have got enough righteousness for Me, and I have got enough for you – too.” When His blood covers you, and His righteousness caringly shared with you, your colour flips from red (under God’s wrath) to blue (colour of royalty in The Kingdom).

And there will be no more condemnation to those who are in Christ. (Romans 8).

Oh, Hallelujah! What a relief.

CART screenshot From: http://www.salford-systems.com/en/training/videos#part-5

Oh dear.. it’s starting.. things like this probably lead to the Revelation 666 imprinted on one’s body as a number

http://www.smh.com.au/technology/sci-tech/breakthrough-in-storing-700-terabytes-of-data-in-1-gram-of-dna-20130124-2d89q.html

• 5:39PM Thursday Jan 24, 2013

The Sydney Morning Herald

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Breakthrough in storing 700 terabytes of data in 1 gram of DNA

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January 24, 2013 - 9:42AM

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Richard Ingham

Data could be stored in DNA for years. Photo: Phil Carrick
Scientists in Britain on Wednesday announced a breakthrough in the quest to turn DNA into a revolutionary form of data storage.
A speck of man-made DNA can hold mountains of data that can be freeze-dried, shipped and stored, potentially for thousands of years, they said.
The contents are "read" by sequencing the DNA — as is routinely done today, in genetic fingerprinting and so on — and turning it back into computer code.
"We already know that DNA is a robust way to store information because we can extract it from bones of woolly mammoths, which date back tens of thousands of years, and make sense of it," said Nick Goldman of the European Bioinformatics Institute (EBI) in Cambridge.

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"It's also incredibly small, dense and does not need any power for storage, so shipping and keeping it is easy."
DNA is the famous double helix of compounds - a long, coiled molecular "ladder" comprising four chemical rungs, adenine, cytosine, guanine and thymine, which team up in pairs. C teams up with G, and T teams up with A.
The letter sequence comprises the genome, or the chemical blueprint for making and sustaining life. Human DNA has more than three billion letters, coiled into packages of 24 chromosomes.
The project entails taking data in the form of zeros and 1s in computing's binary code, and transcribing it into "Base-3" code, which uses zeros, 1s and 2s.
The data is transcribed for a second time into DNA code, which is based on the A, C, G and T. A block of five letters is used for a single binary digit.
The letters are then turned into molecules, using lab-dish chemicals.
The work does not entail using any living DNA, nor does it seek to create any life form and in fact the man-made code would be quite useless in anything biological, the researchers said.
"We have absolutely no intention of messing with life," said Goldman.
Only short strings of DNA can be made, which means the message has to be chopped up into small sections of 117 letters, each attached to a tiny address tag, rather like packet-switching in internet data, which enables data to be reassembled.
To prove their concept, the team encoded an MP3 recording of Martin Luther King's "I Have A Dream" speech; a digital photo of their lab; a PDF of the landmark study in 1953 that described the structure of DNA; a file of all of Shakespeare's sonnets; and a document that describes the data storage technique.
"We downloaded the files from the web and used them to synthesise hundreds of thousands of pieces of DNA. The result looks like a tiny piece of dust," said Emily Leproust of Agilent, a US biotech company that took the digital data and used it to synthesise molecules of DNA in the lab.
Agilent then mailed the sample back across the Atlantic to the EBI, where the researchers soaked the DNA in water to reconstitute it and used standard sequencing machines to unravel the code. They recovered and read the files with 100 per cent accuracy.
The work follows a big step last year when scientists at Harvard announced they had stored 700 terabytes of data — enough for around 70,000 movies — in a gram of DNA.
The new method eliminates the risk of error when the DNA is read, say the researchers, whose work appears in the journal Nature.
"We figured, let's break up the code into lots of overlapping fragments going in both directions, with indexing information showing where each fragment belongs in the overall code, and make a coding scheme that doesn't allow repeats," said co-author Ewan Birney.
"That way, you would have to have the same error on four different fragments for it to fail, and that would be very rare."
Data is accumulating massively around the world, and storing it is a headache. Magnetic and optical discs are voluminous, need to be kept in cool, dry conditions and are prone to decay.
"The only limit [for DNA storage] is the cost," said Birney.
Sequencing and reading the DNA takes a couple of weeks with present technology, so it is not suitable for jobs needing instant data retrieval.
Instead, it would be appropriate for data that would be stored for between 500 and 5000 years, such as a doomsday encyclopaedia of knowledge and culture.
But on current trends, sequencing costs could fall by a factor of 20 within a decade, making DNA storage economically feasible for timeframes of less than 50 years, the authors claim.
AFP

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